The national mobilization against the coronavirus is now in full swing. Schools and workplaces nationwide have shuttered. The federal government has recommended that people not gather in groups of 10 or more. Social distancing and self-isolation are now becoming part of the fabric of daily American life.
This has all sparked a serious question among many people: Are we overreacting?
It’s not just a question being asked by partiers and bar-goers — it has also been asked in the New York Times. A widely circulated article by Stanford’s John Ioannidis suggests that the stepped-up US response is a “fiasco in the making” that’s being made without enough data.
As of today, the United States falls in last place with regard to limiting COVID-19 growth according to the number of confirmed cases. According to the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, the number of confirmed cases in the United States grew at a faster rate than any other country in the world yesterday. Below, I dive into how these numbers are skewed by country population and the number of coronavirus tests conducted.
The number of confirmed coronavirus cases rose from 7,783 on Wednesday to 13,677 yesterday. The growth of 5,894 new confirmed cases in just one day equates to a 76% increase in cases in just a 24-hour period.
Plot of coronavirus cases in the United States over the last month (2/19 to 3/19). You are likely wondering how population size, number of tests performed, etc. play into this overall picture.
With regards to population size, despite having a billion more people India added only 38 new cases yesterday. However, this number is skewed by the fact that India has performed only 14,514 tests to date compared to 103,945 tests in the United States.
In comparison, the country that added the 2nd highest number of cases yesterday was Italy, a country with a population of 60.48 million. That equals just 18% of the population of the United States.
It is no secret that coronavirus testing in the United States has lagged compare to other countries. Limited testing in the United States potentially downplays the numbers below, leaving the true number of cases unknown.
In the past week, the number of tests conducted in the United States has increased, however, the data for the past couple days has not been compiled yet. This could skew the numbers to look like coronavirus is growing faster, yet we are simply testing more.
Ultimately, it’s impossible to capture the true number of coronavirus cases at any given point. The numbers show the minimum number of COVID-19 cases and are highly dependent on two factors: population and rate of testing.
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Growth By Country From 3/18 to 3/19
- United States cases grew by 5,894 equalling a growth of 76%
- Italy cases grew by 5,322 equalling a growth of 15%
- Spain cases grew by 4,053 equalling a growth of 29%
- Germany cases grew by 2,993 equalling a growth of 24%
- France cases grew by 1,828 equalling a growth of 20%
- Switzerland cases grew by 1,047 equalling a growth of 35%
- Iran cases grew by 1,046 equalling a growth of 6%
- Netherlands cases grew by 409 equalling a growth of 20%
- Austria cases grew by 367 equalling a growth of 22%
- Portugal cases grew by 337 equalling a growth of 75%
- Belgium cases grew by 309 equalling a growth of 21%
- Ireland cases grew by 265 equalling a growth of 91%
- Brazil cases grew by 249 equalling a growth of 67%
- Israel cases grew by 244 equalling a growth of 56%
- Czechia cases grew by 230 equalling a growth of 50%
- Norway cases grew by 196 equalling a growth of 13%
- Sweden cases grew by 160 equalling a growth of 13%
- Pakistan cases grew by 155 equalling a growth of 52%
- South Korea cases grew by 152 equalling a growth of 2%
- Canada cases grew by 143 equalling a growth of 22%
- Luxembourg cases grew by 132 equalling a growth of 65%
- Australia cases grew by 113 equalling a growth of 20%
- Malaysia cases grew by 110 equalling a growth of 14%
- Poland cases grew by 104 equalling a growth of 41%
- Saudi Arabia cases grew by 103 equalling a growth of 60%
- Turkey cases grew by 94 equalling a growth of 96%
- Denmark cases grew by 94 equalling a growth of 9%
- Peru cases grew by 89 equalling a growth of 61%
- Ecuador cases grew by 88 equalling a growth of 79%
- Indonesia cases grew by 84 equalling a growth of 37%
- Iceland cases grew by 80 equalling a growth of 32%
- Finland cases grew by 64 equalling a growth of 19%
- United Kingdom cases grew by 63 equalling a growth of 2%
- Egypt cases grew by 60 equalling a growth of 31%
- Thailand cases grew by 60 equalling a growth of 28%
- China cases grew by 54 equalling a growth of 0%
- Russia cases grew by 52 equalling a growth of 35%
- India cases grew by 38 equalling a growth of 24%
- Japan cases grew by 35 equalling a growth of 4%
- South Africa cases grew by 34 equalling a growth of 29%
- Singapore cases grew by 32 equalling a growth of 10%
- Armenia cases grew by 31 equalling a growth of 37%
- Iraq cases grew by 28 equalling a growth of 17%
- United Arab Emirates cases grew by 27 equalling a growth of 24%
- Mexico cases grew by 25 equalling a growth of 27%
- Croatia cases grew by 24 equalling a growth of 30%
- Lebanon cases grew by 24 equalling a growth of 18%
- Panama cases grew by 23 equalling a growth of 27%
- Bahrain cases grew by 22 equalling a growth of 9%
- Serbia cases grew by 20 equalling a growth of 24%
 spreads across the globe, each country hopes that it has the ability to slow its growth in their own country.){kind=link}