Eight Reasons Why Most Colleges will Probably Fail by 2030

In the advent of easily-accessible alternatives to a traditional college education, the fact that such an education is becoming less and less likely to guarantee a well-paying job (or even a job at all), and the horrible debt-slavery of that has come to characterize the greedy colleges, we have to ask: how much longer does this system have, and why will it eventually be replaced by an internet-based education? Not much longer, according to the Thomas Frey of the Futurist Speaker; his assertions and their pros and cons are examined, below:

1. Overhead costs– Even if the buildings are paid for and all money-losing athletic programs are dropped, the costs associated with maintaining a college campus are extraordinarily expensive. These costs range from utilities, to insurance, to phone systems, to security, to maintenance and repair- with either students or the tax-payer made to pick up the tab. Some of the less visible expenses involve the bonds and financing instruments used to cover new construction, campus projects, and revenue inconsistencies. The cost of money itself will be a huge factor. When your only presence is online, much of this stuff becomes unnecessary, and people get to pay for the only benefit they require from college: knowledge.
2. There will always be too many terrible teachers – Many of the exact same classes are taught in thousands of classroom simultaneously every semester. The law of averages tells us that 49.9% of these will be below average. Any college that is able to deliver one of the best teachers via internet video will suddenly have a better class than 99% of all other colleges. This means that lecturing as a profession may soon be restricted to a few people, or even disappear. The question arises then as to whom would perform this service, and how would the “best” be determined without many lecturers to compare. Teaching as a whole might eventually disappear as a profession, which might cause increased unemployment.
3. Greater transparency, easier comparability – Online rating systems will begin to shoot down many classes and teachers over the coming years. Bad ratings of one teacher and one class will directly affect the overall rating of the institution. Just like any product and service, we get to target the specific courses that we love or hate. However, something being popular is no guarantee that it is correct or better; an engineering class might receive poor reviews because it is harder compared to easier subjects. An amiable lecturer may not be as knowledgeable as a more boring one.
4. Scheduling conflicts – Yes, classrooms help focus our attention on the subject at hand. However, this trait is by no means a positive one, when people should learn to control their own will-power to avoid procrastination. The fact is that being able to choose when and where one wishes to receive an education would save on travel time and expenses, and frees us to learn wherever we want. No more sacrificing 3-5 years just so you can learn new things, just pick up a subject whenever, wherever.
5. Pricing competition –Colleges focused primarily on course delivery will be facing an increasingly price sensitive consumer base. Without sky-high expenses, and with the potential ability of any person to render such a service, there’s theoretically even more room for cost-savings. Of course, it is entirely possible that
6. Credentialing system competition – Much like a doctor’s ability to write prescriptions, a college’s ability to grant credits has given them an unusual competitive advantage, something every startup entrepreneur is searching for. However, traditional systems for granting credits only work as long as people still have faith in the system. This “faith in the system” is about to be eroded with competing systems. Companies like Coursera, Udacity, and iTunesU are well positioned to start offering an entirely new credentialing system. The question is, how do these new providers choose their courses, and what do they do with their new powers to educate? The reduced ability of governments to regulate such trans-national organisations can be good (in preventing government indoctrination) or bad (in allowing a few corporations the ability to decide what is worth learning). Hopefully more options become available, but who gets to run the credentialing system?
7. Relationships formed in colleges will be replaced with other relationship-building systems – Social structures are changing and the value of relationships built in college, while often quite valuable, are equally often overrated. Just as a dating relationship today is far more likely to begin online, business and social relationships in the future will need to happen in far different ways. Unfortunately, like it or loathe it, this seems to be inevitable. Can people transition to an online world, and how would relationships carry forth outside the class-chatroom?
8. Sudden realization that “the emperor has no clothes!” – Education, much like our money supply, is a system built on trust. We are trusting colleges to instil valuable knowledge in our students, and in doing so, create a more valuable workforce and society. But when those who find no tangible value begin to openly proclaim, “the emperor has no clothes!” colleges will find themselves in a hard-to-defend downward spiral.

As developing countries rise in stature, the demand for education will rise substantially. The current college systems are a mismatch for what future consumers will want, and dropping enrollments will cause many to fail. For better, or worse. Hopefully the alternatives will solve the student loan crisis, but they are unlikely to solve the unemployment problem- they might even cost a few jobs.

Source: Futurist Speaker

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