Stratfor’s New Try To Predict The Future – Will They Fail Again?

Stratfor, an American-based think tank, has released its new ‘Decade Forecast’. It predicts that the EU will be unable to hold up, China may end up in a ‘communist dictatorship’ and Russia will break apart. Many such predictions were also present in previous reports but they haven’t seemed to occur as per the forecasts. The report explains that there will be an increasing disorder in the world. But the one constant will be the continued and maturing power of US, though this power will be used to a lesser extent.

Its predictions about Russia are as follows: “It is unlikely that the Russian Federation will survive in its current form. Russia’s failure to transform its energy revenue into a self-sustaining economy makes it vulnerable to price fluctuations. It has no defense against these market forces. Given the organization of the federation, with revenue flowing to Moscow before being distributed directly or via regional governments, the flow of resources will also vary dramatically.”

US will have to be cautious as it attempts to steer Russia toward a cease-fire in east Ukraine http://t.co/oj7dWOebtF pic.twitter.com/f7kSLYKi7m

— Stratfor (@Stratfor) February 8, 2015

Stratfor founder and CEO, George Friedman, however recently said that Russia has the ability to overcome US sanctions and that the ruble depreciation happening is due to falling global oil prices. “Russians’ strength is that they can endure things that would break other nations,” Friedman said, suggesting that the country, “has military and political power that could begin to impinge on Europe.” The think tank, sometimes referred to as a ‘shadow CIA’ due to its employment of former CIA analysts, also warns that this time Russia’s alleged tendency of solving problems with ‘secret police’ won’t work, and the Federal Security Service will be unable to rescue the country. [1]

EU’s scenario:

The report says that Germany and its high exports are playing the villain in the European Union’s story. “The European Union’s structures — including the pricing of the euro and many European regulations — are designed to facilitate this export dependency.” The EU seems to have fragmented into at least two parts. “Mediterranean Europe and countries such as Germany and Austria have completely different behavioral patterns and needs. No single policy can suit all of Europe. This has been the core problem from the beginning, but it has now reached an extreme point.” In Europe, one country’s benefit seems to be another country’s loss, says the report.

FREE VIDEO: Stratfor explains Ukriane’s primary geographic challenge. http://t.co/Zrh2xcU69Z pic.twitter.com/SLwlLCAwEJ — Stratfor (@Stratfor) February 16, 2015

Poland is in a good position according to Stratfor: “At the center of economic growth and increasing political influence will be Poland. Poland has maintained one of the most impressive growth profiles outside of Germany and Austria.”

China’s future:

“Our forecast is the imposition of a communist dictatorship, a high degree of economic and political centralization and increased nationalism.” says the report. China has completed its cycle as a high-growth, low-wage country and has entered a new phase just like Japan and the other Asian tiger economies.

Stratfor has also identified 16 countries as post-China manufacturing hubs.

‘World will remain a dangerous place’

The geopolitical intelligence firm provides strategic analysis and forecasting to individuals and organizations across the globe. With their ‘Decade Forecast,’ which is published every 5 years, they have tried to predict the global course of events that nations, governments and political leaders may take.

Though the company claims that they are predicting the unexpected happenings in the world, closer inspection of their forecasts show that many of these are quite often general and broad statements.
In the 1995-2005 Decade Forecast, the think tank reported that, “As in the period prior to World War I, prosperity and instability will go hand in hand.” They had also predicted that the decade would be, “a period of increasing disharmony both between nations and within nations,” with China expected to suffer, “growing instability, including the strong possibility of fragmentation and civil war.” How many of these predictions have actually come true? That is for you to judge. Time and again it has mentioned the US in its reports as, “the world’s only superpower – the only power able to project its forces globally.”

Since 1776 @Stratfor the USA has been a Genocidal Empire in the making! Learn some real history boys & girls f/ @CIA: http://t.co/ypFTAmo4pm

— David Chu (@EscapePatagonia) February 26, 2015

The report also said, “We also made some errors. We did not anticipate 9/11, and more important, we did not anticipate the scope of the American response. But in 2005 we did forecast the difficulty the United States would face and the need for the United States to withdraw from its military engagements in the Islamic world. We predicted China’s weakness too early.”

The methods and sources of Stratfor’s reports have widely been criticized, especially after Anonymous hacker, Jeremy Hammond, broke into the Stratfor network and handed stolen documents over to WikiLeaks for publication.

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[1] http://rt.com/usa/234983-stratfor-decade-forecast-russia/