What if we quit oil?

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Proving that America is still addicted to oil is the recent incident of oil spill in Santa Barbara. It brings back memories of seabirds enveloped in a layer of dirty looking oil and blackened beaches. The whole incident has come not long after President Obama approved oil exploration in the Arctic.

 

Petroleum still  provides a full 92 percent of energy for transportation , ie. our cars and trucks remain almost completely dependent on petroleum. Environmentalists in the US say that we can and must transition the transportation sector off it, since using petroleum for transportation is responsible for a quarter of our greenhouse gas emissions. Currently its not too hard to spot a Tesla or a Nissan Leaf, which proves that electricity based transportation is not a far-fetched dream.

A future of fully electrified transportation would boost electricity demand in a dramatic way. In fact, a full-scale conversion to electric transportation would require around a 35 percent increase in electricity demand. That would constitute a major change for the U.S. electricity market, where demand has been almost flat in recent years.

 

Intuitively the whole idea seems incorrect: why would we want to increase electricity consumption? However, if history is any guide, a big increase in electricity demand may be just what we need to boost clean energy. Replacement of electricity with oil follows the pattern of all historic energy transitions in the US. Although it may be an environmental foe now, oil was itself once an environmental savior: the invention of kerosene in the 19th century allowed us to stop hunting whales for their oil, which was a crucial lighting source at the time. Similarly, coal helped spare vast tracts of American forests from the saw, since it meant we no longer needed wood for heating.

 

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But we must keep In mind that in order for electricity to be cleaner than gasoline, it has to be generated using clean sources like solar or hydroelectric. But government regulations have already made coal much more expensive, and thanks to the fracking boom, coal is losing out all over the country to cheaper, cleaner natural gas. An increase in electricity demand can help further this process of substituting dirtier fuels with cleaner ones and would create opportunities to improve the economics and streamline regulation of carbon-free sources such as renewables and nuclear. 

 

As demand for electricity increases, the likelihood of a transition to clean power also increases.

 

The long American love affair with the internal combustion engine is unlikely to die completely with the electric car. But an electrified transport sector would be no less than a revolution in the energy industry. The entire concept, if actually implemented would yield tremendous environmental benefits. The birds of Santa Barbara would eternally grateful.

 
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