India Gets Closer To China. Here’s Why America Should Be Worried

India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, recently went to China on a three-day maiden visit to boost economic ties and discuss a decades old border dispute that led to a war in 1962, which China won. He achieved much more, and in the process, gave goose bumps to the United States.

On Day 1, Modi snapped the world’s mightiest selfie with China’s Prime Minister, Li Keqiang.

It’s selfie time! Thanks Premier Li. pic.twitter.com/DSCTszSnq3

— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) May 15, 2015

On Day 2, Chinese President, Xi Jinping, walked hand in hand with Modi at Wild Goose Pagoda – the first time Xi received a foreign leader outside Beijing.

Chinese President Xi Jinping welcomed India’s Narendra Modi to his hometown, built trust http://t.co/pKbuiZasjr pic.twitter.com/VZbCDuBp9A — Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) May 15, 2015

Modi later pressed China to back India’s bid for a permanent seat in a reformed UN Security Council and membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, to give Asia a stronger voice. “China’s support for India’s permanent membership of a reformed UNSC and for India’s membership of export control regimes like NSG will do more than just strengthen our international cooperation,” Modi said while addressing the students of the Tsinghua University. On UNSC, China, the only veto-wielding permanent member, reiterated that it backed India’s aspiration to play a big role in the world body.

On Day 3, India signed trade and economic co-operation deals worth $22 billion, in Shanghai.

“You are the ‘factory of the world’. Whereas, we are the ‘back office of the world‘… Let us work together in mutual interest and for progress and prosperity of our great countries,” the PM said in his speech to executives from 200 Chinese and Indian companies.

Why is it a matter of concern for America?

If political tensions between India and China decrease, bilateral differences reduce and trust is improved between the two countries, then Russia (Putin recently received Xi in Moscow, where 32 agreements were signed by the two leaders), India, and China combined can become the world’s economic and strategic powerhouse, ultimately challenging the United States hegemony.

The Sri Lanka Angle

To deepen its economic and strategic presence, in the neighborhood and in the Indian Ocean, Xi visited India and Sri Lanka in September 2014. Xi said on the visit to Delhi, that China would invest billions of dollars over the next five years in railways, industrial parks and, potentially, nuclear power in India. In Colombo, Xi inaugurated the final phase of a coal-fired power plant, financed by Beijing and built by a China Machinery Engineering Corporation. A few days later, China docked a nuclear-powered submarine at a Sri Lankan port; this has been recognized as the unfolding of China’s desire to be a maritime power.

In January 2015, while Sri Lanka’s people voted out a government (that happened to be Beijing-friendly), the new Sri Lankan government flaunted the strengthening of ties with India ignoring China, which for decades pumped billions of dollars into infrastructure projects in Sri Lanka and provided lethal military equipment and post-war diplomatic support to the island country. Modi signed a nuclear energy cooperation deal with Sri Lanka’s newly elected president, Maithripala Sirisena, in February 2015.

An aggressive China is looking to gain regional hegemony, and its ability to establish a base of operation in the Indian Ocean could be a major factor in the balance of power in Asia going forward. The continuous struggle to attract Sri Lanka, which sits at the heart of the Indian Ocean and adjacent to major shipping routes— thus making it geopolitically important— will lose its momentum a bit after Modi’s recent visit to China. China’s plan to establish a maritime silk road across the region might see the light of the day if relations with India improve.

While on one hand India’s rise, both economically and militarily, gives the US an important ideological ally, its love-hate relationship with China is sure to hurt the world’s mightiest power, whilst it struggles to assert freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, where China claims about 90% of the 3.5 million sq km area. Food for thought: In October 2014, when Modi visited America, the two countries included the South China Sea in their joint declaration for the first time.

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